GLOBAL
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE TRANSPONDER USAGE AND COVERAGE
13 October
2003
(courtesy of Futron Corporation)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This paper presents a top-level assessment of Futron’s 2000 and 2003 global analyses of satellite transponder usage and coverage, also called the Supply Analysis. A comparison of the 2000 and 2003 analyses reveals frequency, application, and coverage trends.
BACKGROUND
Every year, Futron analyzes
global geostationary commercial communications satellite transponder
(bandwidth) usage and coverage. The objective is to develop a bandwidth supply
baseline that we use in a variety of business case analyses and studies. The
transponder level analysis quantifies operational bandwidth, the percentage of
that bandwidth that is being utilized by each application (i.e., telephony,
video, data), and the regional distribution of bandwidth. Futron refers to this
analysis as the Supply Analysis.
The Supply Analysis serves as the
baseline for Futron’s annual demand based forecast of commercial
geostationary telecommunication satellites. This forecast is a
country-bycountry analysis of the underlying demand for telecommunication
satellite bandwidth (in 36-MHz transponder equivalents).
This paper
compares snapshots of bandwidth and applications from 2000 and mid- 2003, as
well as global coverage in both years and what trends can be expected in the
future.
METHODOLOGY
The Supply Analysis is a data
collection process consisting of three stages: satellite technical data
research, transponder usage research, and transponder coverage
research.
In the collection of satellite technical and transponder data
Futron compiles the number and frequencies of the transponders, the bandwidth
and power for each transponder, as well as other technical characteristics. In
addition, the beam footprints of each transponder are collected for all
operational, commercial communications satellites.
The second step of
the analysis is to identify the applications being delivered by the satellite
transponders. These applications are grouped into three main categories:
telephony, video, and data communications, each of which is made up of several
sub markets (detailed below) which are assessed in the demand forecast.
Telephony
Video
Data
Futron assigns applications to transponders through extensive research using publicly available information on transponder usage and leases, such as those in operator web sites, news reports, and publications. Futron then conducts a comprehensive regional analysis that identifies the countries receiving service from specific satellites. This analysis incorporates detailed economic, regulatory, and political information collected at the country level.
GLOBAL FREQUENCY TRENDS
The Supply Analysis looks in depth at the three most common frequency bands for commercial communications satellites: C, Ku, and Ka band. The following chart shows the total number of transponder equivalents (36 MHz) in the 2000 and the 2003 Supply Analyses.
Figure 1. Frequency Trends
Transponder Equivalents Figure 2 shows the growth rates for each of the frequency bands. Ka-band has fallen, in part, due to several satellites reaching end-of-life (Italsat 1 & 2, Kopernikus 2 & 3, Superbird B1). Ka-band is expected to increase over time with the launch of new systems such as WildBlue and Spaceway.
Figure 2. Transponder Supply Change by Band from 2000 to 2003
Figure 3 shows the relationship of the three bands as a percentage of total supply.
Figure 3. Frequency Distribution - percent of total bandwidth
It is interesting to note that
the number of new Ku-band transponders is about three times the number of new
C-band transponders over the 2000 to 2003 period. The trend toward Ku-band
services will likely continue and evolve into growth in the use of
Ka-band.
The expected growth in the Ku and Ka-bands is due in part to
increased spectrum availability, as well as the demand for higher data rates
that can be achieved through both the physics of the spectrum and improved
technologies, such as frequency re-use.
APPLICATION TRENDS
In 2003, growth occurred in the data and video application areas, while telephony fell by about half. The growth in the data market is due to the significant increase in global Internet traffic from both residential and corporate users. Growth in capacity used for video applications can be attributed to the need to accommodate more bandwidth-intense HDTV, as well as an increasing need for bandwidth to accommodate local-into-local service by DTH providers. Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the change in transponders by application.
Figure 4. Capacity Trends by Application
Figure 4. Percentage Change by Application from 2000 to 2003
Data applications are likely to experience the strongest growth in the near future due to an increase in both demand for bandwidth per user and the numbers of users. In 2003, as in 2000, private networks (including government networks) and Internet Service Provider (ISP)-to-backbone services dominated the data application marketplace as shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5. Data Applications – Transponder Equivalents serving each application in 2003
GLOBAL GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE TRENDS
The Supply Analysis allows Futron to perform complex analyses comparing regional information by application and bandwidth. The United States, Western Europe, and Asia are supplied with very high quantities of satellite bandwidth when compared to the rest of the world. China’s bandwidth supply has grown over the last 3 years. The maps in Figures 6 and 7 illustrate global satellite coverage in transponder equivalents (36 MHz) by country and region in 2000 and 2003.
Figure 6. Global Transponder Coverage in 2000
Figure 7. Global Transponder Coverage in 2003
The map in Figure 7 shows where satellite activities are currently focused worldwide. Although areas that are highly developed, such as the United States and Western Europe, are the largest users of transponders, countries with large populations and commitments to satellite communications services, such as India and China, also have increasing concentrations of transponders. The maps in Figures 8 and 9 below compare regional and country specific preferences by band type for 2000 and 2003.
Figure 8. Global Frequency Band Preferences in 2000
Figure 9. Global Frequency Band Preferences in 2003
Different regions of the world
have different bandwidth requirements. This is due to weather differences as
well as applications being served. Regions with heavy precipitation tend to
prefer C-band because of the higher rain attenuation at Ku-Band. At the same
time, C-band, and occasionally Ku-band, may have problems with terrestrial
interference which can limit services. In addition, many areas (such as much of
Africa) have large areas with low density, and have not provided economic
support for Ku-Band capacity. However smaller antennas are usually preferable
for direct to home and other end-user services, thus supporting a move away
from C-Band to Ku-Band and now Ka- Band.
Over the last 20 years, the
satellite communications market has shown an interesting evolutionary pattern.
In 1980, Figure 9 would have looked quite different, since Ku-Band services
were just beginning, and even the countries that today use Ku-band or a
combination of C and Ku-band then relied almost exclusively on C-band
frequencies. Even in the last 3 years since 2000, the balance has continued to
shift towards Ku-band over C-band.
Futron Overview
| Futron Overview Futron Corporation is a technology management consulting firm. Futron applies analytically rigorous decision-support methods to transform data into information. We collaborate closely with clients to relate decisions to future outcomes and measures of value. Our aerospace consulting services include market and industry analyses, safety and risk management, remote sensing, and communications and information management. Futron was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland with a branch office in Houston, Texas. |  Futron's headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland |
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Futron’s Space and Telecommunications Division is
the industry leader in researching, analyzing, and forecasting space and
telecommunications markets and programs. Futron offers our commercial and
government clients a suite of proprietary, leadingedge analytic methodologies.
Our world-class team of market and policy analysts, economists, and engineers
bring unparalleled skills and expertise to each account.
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